Data from the last week of June (23-29) at Zhejiang Changxing Textile City sends a clear signal: the collapse of upstream costs is accelerating its transmission downstream. Polyester filament yarn prices dropped broadly by 150-200 yuan/ton, with some high-priced varieties seeing even larger declines, directly dragging lining fabric quotations from 'stable' to 'weakly stable'.
Cost Collapse: Polyester Filament Declines Widen, Wait-and-See Sentiment Prevails
The raw material side was the week's core variable. Due to continuous declines in upstream polymerization raw materials, overall polyester filament yarn transactions remained sluggish, with transaction prices falling again. Specifically, FDY 61D prices fell to 8,800-8,900 yuan/ton, with a low of 8,800 yuan/ton. Bright FDY 75D, though still in demand, saw transaction prices drop to around 8,600 yuan/ton. For DTY, 150D/144F (small draw texturing) center price was about 9,000 yuan/ton, down 100-150 yuan/ton from the previous week.
Behind the price declines is a sharp contraction in purchasing willingness among weaving mills. Public industry data shows that while downstream loom operating rates remain high, raw material inventories are generally low, with mills adopting a 'buy-as-needed' strategy. This 'buy on rising, avoid on falling' mentality is amplified in a downward cost channel, causing persistently insufficient market transaction volumes. Pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn prices also fell, with polyester staple fiber 1.56*38mm averaging around 7,550 yuan/ton, maintaining a weak and volatile trend.
Product Divergence: Conventional Items Under Pressure, Differentiated Products Show Resilience
Against the backdrop of broad raw material price declines, the fabric side shows clear product divergence. Conventional volume items are the first to suffer: water-jet taffeta, lightweight satin, and semi-dull pongee saw sluggish sales, while water-jet fully elastic pongee sanded grey fabric moved slowly. These products are highly homogeneous, face intense price competition, and are vulnerable once cost support weakens.
In contrast, some differentiated products demonstrated demand resilience. Satin brocade sales remained strong with low inventory. Cotton velvet sales rebounded, especially jacquard cotton velvet which became an early mover into active sales. Twill lining also showed signs of volume recovery. Common features of these products include relatively focused end-uses (e.g., cotton velvet for home textiles, satin brocade for printed grey fabric) and lower price sensitivity among downstream buyers who prioritize quality and pattern.
Notably, sales of DTY 75D/72F network yarn and 75D/144F, 100D/144F were boosted by increased production of fully elastic pongee printed sanded grey fabric. This phenomenon suggests that within the overall weak market, fabric varieties that align with consumer upgrading (e.g., sanding, printing finishing processes) can still capture structural growth opportunities.
Outlook: Weak Adjustment to Continue, Procurement Window May Be Approaching
Overall, the current Changxing market is in a typical 'cost-driven' downturn. Without a clear bottoming signal from upstream polymerization raw materials, polyester filament yarn prices are likely to continue their weak decline. For weaving mills, while lower raw material costs provide some relief, the risk of finished inventory depreciation and downstream customer wait-and-see attitudes trap them between 'cutting prices to maintain volume' and 'reducing production to support prices'.
From a procurement perspective, current prices are at a relatively low level, with some varieties falling over 200 yuan/ton. Considering the upcoming autumn/winter stocking season, demand-driven purchases are inevitable. For buyers with replenishment needs, the current level may not be the absolute bottom, but it warrants close monitoring.