The wool textile industry in 2026 presents a paradoxical picture: exports grew modestly, but imports surged by nearly a third. According to public data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total wool textile trade in the first five months reached $6.06 billion, up 8.16% year-on-year. Exports stood at $4.35 billion, up 2.29%, while imports soared to $1.71 billion, a 27.35% increase. The import growth rate is over ten times that of exports, signaling deep structural adjustments in domestic wool processing.
Export: Emerging Markets Take the Lead, Intermediate Goods Shine
Traditional European and American markets are sluggish, but emerging economies are filling the gap. Exports to India hit $76 million, up 40.19%; to Turkey, $41.46 million, up 24.89%. The key driver is wool top, an intermediate for worsted spinning. From January to May, wool top exports reached 13,300 tons, worth $178 million, up 21.68%.
This reflects a reconfiguration of industry chains. India and Turkey are absorbing low-end wool processing capacity from China but lack raw materials, boosting demand for Chinese wool tops. For domestic mills, this means shifting from exporting garments to semi-finished goods, potentially compressing margins but enhancing order stability.
Cashmere product exports rose 6.97%, wool products 5.11%, and knitted sweaters saw steady overseas demand. German orders grew; while volumes to Vietnam and Italy dipped, export values rose, indicating higher unit prices—a payoff from premium strategies.
Import: Domestic Demand Recovery and Raw Material Hoarding
Import data is a barometer of industry health. Within the $1.71 billion, cashmere raw materials and products contributed $127 million, up 44.61%. Imports of high-end cashmere fabrics and garments rose in both volume and price, signaling a recovery in domestic luxury consumption.
More critically, international wool prices are rising, and domestic mills are ramping up purchases of Australian and South African wool to lock in costs ahead of the autumn-winter buying season. This is not mere inventory restocking but a bet on future orders.
However, surging imports carry risks. Rising raw material costs will squeeze downstream sectors like spinning, knitting, and worsted fabrics. If price hikes cannot be passed on, small and medium enterprises may face shrinking margins.
Industry Impact: Logic and Risks Behind Dual Growth
The dual growth is driven by three factors: early placement of autumn-winter orders, expanding wool processing demand in emerging textile countries, domestic consumption recovery coupled with mill upgrades, and China's integrated supply chain advantages. For buyers, rising raw material costs mean higher procurement expenses, but emerging market orders offer new supply channels. For mills, premium transformation is key—high-value categories like wool top and cashmere are growing, while low-end OEM orders shift to India and Turkey.
The outlook hinges on two variables: whether international wool prices ease and whether domestic demand sustains. If both improve, the industry may continue its upswing; if not, a shakeout looms.