In the first five months of 2026, China's total trade in wool textile raw materials and products reached $6.06 billion, up 8.16% year-on-year. While this growth rate is modest within the broader textile sector, the structural divergence is striking: imports surged 27.35% to $1.71 billion, far outpacing the 2.29% export growth to $4.35 billion. This imbalance warrants close industry attention.
Import Surge: Dual Drivers of Domestic Recovery and Stockpiling
The $1.71 billion import figure reflects rising mill utilization and stronger raw material procurement. Customs data shows cashmere raw material and product imports hit $127 million, surging 44.61% year-on-year, the biggest growth driver. Higher volumes and prices of premium cashmere fabrics and garments indicate recovering domestic demand for high-end wool products.
Rising international wool prices are another factor. Procurement of premium Australian and South African wool increased significantly as mills locked in supplies to hedge against cost inflation. Stable capacity in worsted and cashmere processing drove rigid demand across the spinning, knitting, and worsted fabric chain. For buyers, this suggests raw material costs may further feed into end-product prices in the second half.
Export Restructuring: Emerging Markets Take the Baton
Despite modest 2.29% growth to $4.35 billion, export structure shifted notably. Exports to India soared 40.19% to $76 million, and to Turkey rose 24.89% to $41.46 million, driven by wool top shipments. Wool top exports totaled 13,300 tons worth $178 million, up 21.68%.
This reflects capacity expansion in emerging textile manufacturing countries. India and Turkey are taking over some intermediate processing from China, boosting demand for wool top as a semi-finished input. Among traditional markets, German orders held steady, while volumes to Vietnam and Italy dipped but value rose, suggesting higher product value-add.
Cashmere product exports grew 6.97%, wool products 5.11%, and yarn and knitwear demand remained stable. Early autumn-winter order bookings support second-half exports, but the rise of emerging markets means China's wool sector must pivot further toward high-end, differentiated products.
Industry Logic: Can Dual Growth Last?
Three factors underpin the dual growth: early placement of overseas autumn-winter orders and expanding processing demand from emerging manufacturing countries; domestic consumption recovery combined with mill upgrades boosting raw material procurement; and China's intact full-chain wool textile advantages keeping trade surplus stable.
But risks persist. Import growth far exceeding exports is narrowing the trade surplus. Sustained raw material price hikes will compress processing margins. For import-dependent mills, currency fluctuations and shipping costs are wildcards. Industry expects exports to remain resilient as peak procurement season arrives, but imports will likely stay high. Mills must balance inventory and cash flow carefully.