On July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn (PFY) among sample enterprises fell to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This first full trading day of July directly reflects the weakness of demand during the off-season. Downstream buyers show clear resistance to current factory list prices, restricting purchases to essential production needs, creating a stalemate of "low volume, stable prices."
Industry Signals from Production-Sales Data
Looking at the distribution of individual sample enterprise data, sales ratios ranged from 0% to 85%, but the vast majority clustered between 20% and 40%, with some firms reporting zero transactions. This distribution suggests that not all PFY categories face equal sales pressure—some differentiated products or specifications still achieve relatively high ratios, while conventional varieties are largely ignored.
Notably, although factory list prices have been adjusted, actual transaction prices remain stable, with no signs of aggressive discounting. This standoff—"factories unwilling to cut, buyers unwilling to buy"—is not unusual in the traditional July textile off-season, but a 35.8% ratio is below the average of recent years, implying that inventory pressure is building at polyester mills.
Transmission Effects on the Polyester Chain
As a key midstream link in the polyester chain, PFY's weak sales will send a signal of softening demand to upstream PTA and MEG markets. Downstream weaving mills are already facing insufficient orders and declining operating rates, leading to a "buy-as-needed" approach and reluctance to build inventories at elevated prices.
For weaving mills, raw material costs typically account for over 60% of final garment and home textile orders. The combination of high PFY prices and low sales means fabric mills are squeezed between rising input costs and stagnant finished product prices. If this standoff persists, it may force some weaving mills to proactively cut production or take early holidays, further compressing actual PFY demand.
From a regional perspective, factories in major PFY production hubs such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are reporting slower shipments. Some have begun increasing promotional efforts or shifting capacity toward higher-value-added varieties. Inquiry activity at Keqiao grey fabric markets is also declining, with traders adopting a wait-and-see stance.