On July 1, the polyester filament market released a dangerous signal: the average sales rate of sample enterprises was only 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous day. This figure means that over 60% of production capacity failed to convert into actual sales, with inventory pressure rapidly accumulating.
The Supply-Demand Imbalance Behind the Sales Rate Decline
Looking at specific sample enterprise data, the situation is even more severe: many enterprises saw sales rates drop to 20% or even 0%, with only a few maintaining rates in the 60%-85% range. This polarization indicates that the market is not uniformly weak, but rather suffers from structural demand mismatches—some products are being directly abandoned by downstream buyers due to price or quality issues.
Although polyester filament manufacturers have adjusted their list prices, actual transactions remain stable without substantial price cuts. This 'stable on the surface, hidden cuts underneath' strategy reflects the upstream sector's conflicting desire to protect profit margins while avoiding a chain reaction of price drops. However, downstream users' reactions are direct: high-price resistance continues to ferment, with procurement strategies fully shifting to 'essential needs only, buy as you use.'
Key Period for Upstream-Downstream Bargaining
This sales rate decline is not an isolated event. According to industry public data, since late June, the polyester filament market has seen sales rates below 40% for multiple consecutive days. Meanwhile, upstream raw material prices such as polyester chips and MDI remain firm, with giants like Covestro still planning new capacity expansions. This 'raw materials rising, finished goods stagnating' scissors gap is severely squeezing the profit margins of weaving enterprises.
For downstream weaving and garment processing companies, the current period falls in the traditional off-season. Insufficient end orders combined with high raw material prices have pushed restocking willingness to freezing point. Major fabric industry clusters like Shengze and Keqiao have seen slight declines in operating rates, with some small and medium-sized factories choosing to cut production or halt operations to wait and see.
Q3 Market Forecast and Risk Warnings
From an inventory cycle perspective, a 35.8% sales rate means that chemical fiber factory finished goods inventories are approaching warning levels. If the sales rate fails to recover above 50% in the next two weeks, upstream players will likely be forced to initiate substantial price cuts to destock. At that point, polyester filament prices may undergo a 5%-10% adjustment, driving linked price declines in products like polyester chips and PTA.
For buyers, the current stage is not suitable for chasing high prices to stockpile, but there is no need for excessive panic either. It is recommended to closely monitor the sales rate trend in mid-July and major factories' inventory announcements. If the sales rate recovers above 45% for three consecutive days, it may signal a price bottom.