In the first five months of 2026, China's wool textile and product trade reached $6.06 billion, up 8.16% year-on-year. The standout figure is imports: $1.71 billion, surging 27.35%, far outpacing exports' 2.29% growth. This dual-growth pattern signals a strategic raw material stockpiling phase reshaping short-term supply-demand dynamics.
Emerging Markets Drive Export Growth
Exports hit $4.35 billion, with emerging economies as the key variable. Shipments to India soared 40.19% to $76 million, and to Turkey rose 24.89% to $41.46 million, both driven by wool tops. This intermediate product category exported 13,300 tons worth $178 million, up 21.68%, indicating overseas processors are accelerating semi-finished purchases from China. Wool and cashmere products grew 5.11% and 6.97% respectively, with yarn and knitted sweaters showing stable demand. Traditional markets diverged: Germany maintained growth, while Vietnam and Italy saw volume declines but value increases, suggesting price gains offset volume dips.
Import Surge: Domestic Recovery Meets Cost Pressures
The $1.71 billion import surge is fueled by upstream raw materials. Cashmere raw material and product imports hit $127 million, up 44.61%, with high-end cashmere fabrics and garments rising in both volume and value. This reflects higher factory utilization—mills are ramping up purchases of Australian and South African wool to support spinning, knitting, and worsted fabric production. Rising international wool prices add another layer: import growth outpacing exports means companies are actively stocking up to lock in costs, not just filling orders. For factories, this implies that H2 raw material costs will directly impact margins if autumn/winter order prices fail to pass through.
Industry Logic: Pre-Winter Orders and High-End Shift
The dual growth is driven by three factors: early autumn/winter garment orders from overseas, with emerging manufacturing hubs like India and Turkey expanding wool processing demand; domestic capacity upgrades boosting raw material procurement; and China's integrated supply chain strengthening competitiveness in wool yarn and knitwear. The trade surplus remains stable, but imports growing faster than exports suggest a 'raw material hoarding cycle.' Analysts expect export resilience to continue with the peak autumn/winter season, but imports may stay elevated. This reflects a necessary shift to high-end, differentiated products—companies are competing on value and efficiency, not just price.