On July 1, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises dropped to 35.8%, down 3 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means over 60% of production capacity failed to convert into actual sales, pushing the market into a typical 'price-volume stalemate.' Downstream users showed clear price resistance against current list prices, with purchases limited to rigid demand, resulting in sluggish transaction atmosphere.
Production-Sales Data Reveals Uneven Market Cooling
Looking at specific sample enterprise data, the divergence is extremely significant. The daily sales-to-production ratio ranged from 0% to 85%, with several enterprises reporting zero sales while a few achieved 60%-85%. This extreme polarization indicates that not all enterprises face the same predicament—some may maintain shipments through flexible pricing or differentiated products, but overall market confidence remains weak.
Notably, although manufacturers adjusted list prices, actual transaction prices remained stable. This 'apparent adjustment but actual stability' approach reflects the dilemma between cost pressure and shipment needs: deep price cuts could trigger losses or market panic, while maintaining high prices risks inventory buildup.
Dysfunctional Price Transmission Mechanism
The persistently low sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn essentially reflects a dysfunctional price transmission mechanism along the chain. Upstream raw material prices (such as PTA and MEG) fluctuate frequently, while downstream weaving, apparel, and other end-demand recover slowly, leaving polyester filament yarn as the 'sandwiched layer.'
Industry public data shows that downstream users generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' procurement strategy, avoiding inventory accumulation. Once this mindset becomes mainstream, it creates a negative cycle: the lower the sales-to-production ratio, the less willing enterprises are to raise prices; the less they raise prices, the more downstream users wait. Eventually, inventory pressure will transmit upstream to raw materials, forcing the entire chemical fiber chain to reprice.
Structural Contradictions Behind Market Chill
The 35.8% sales-to-production ratio is not an isolated event but a microcosm of the cyclical adjustment in the chemical fiber industry. In recent years, polyester filament yarn capacity has expanded continuously, but demand growth has slowed significantly due to global economic slowdown, trade frictions, and consumption downgrading. Supply-demand mismatch has kept industry average operating rates at low levels for extended periods.
Additionally, reactions from regional industrial clusters warrant attention. Weaving enterprises in major polyester filament yarn production areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan currently have generally low operating rates and maintain cautious attitudes toward raw material procurement. This 'caution' has evolved from a short-term strategy to long-term behavior, implying that even if raw material prices fall in the future, the rebound in demand may be limited.