The polyester filament market is undergoing a clear price correction. Shaoxing Jiabao has recently cut spot prices across its entire polyester FDY range by 100-200 yuan/ton. Semi-dull FDY 75D/36F dropped to 8,410 yuan/ton, while 150D/96F and 300D/96F both fell to 8,110 yuan/ton. Bright series also declined, with 75D/36F at 8,760 yuan/ton and 150D/48F at 8,610 yuan/ton. This is the producer's first systematic reduction in recent months, carrying a strong signal.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Drives the Price Cut
The core tension in the polyester chain is that supply capacity continues to expand while demand fails to keep pace. As a regional mid-sized polyester producer, Shaoxing Jiabao's pricing adjustments directly reflect market conditions. Industry data shows that in the first half of 2026, new polyester capacity exceeded 3 million tons, while end-use textile and apparel export growth slowed to single digits. Inventory pressure has cascaded from upstream PTA and MEG to midstream polyester filament, forcing producers to offer discounts. The polyester FDY sentiment score fell to -1, indicating widespread bearishness on short-term prices.
Notably, this price cut is not an isolated event. During the same period, the polyester staple fiber futures contract rose 74 yuan/ton to 6,858 yuan/ton, with open interest increasing by 15,420 lots. However, spot market sentiment was dragged down, with a sentiment score of only -0.5. The divergence between futures and spot suggests that financial players hold a slightly more optimistic view of the long term, while industrial capital focuses on the immediate pressure of destocking.
Transmission to Downstream Weaving and Trade
Polyester FDY is a key raw material for the weaving sector. Its price changes directly affect greige fabric costs and profit margins. After Shaoxing Jiabao's reduction, other polyester producers in the same region are likely to follow suit to avoid losing customers. This chain reaction will accelerate the overall price decline of polyester filament.
For weaving mills, lower raw material costs should be positive. However, in the current environment, the market fears a 'buy on weakness' mentality. If buyers expect further price declines, they will actively compress inventory cycles, temporarily freezing demand. This wait-and-see sentiment has already emerged in textile clusters like Keqiao and Shengze, where some mills have shortened raw material stocking periods from 7 days to less than 3 days.
The foreign trade sector is also under pressure. RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the backflow of overseas orders to Southeast Asia are eroding China's textile price competitiveness. While polyester filament price cuts can reduce raw material costs for export goods, if the cuts are insufficient to cover exchange rate and freight increases, foreign trade companies' willingness to take orders will not improve significantly.
Short-Term Price Outlook and Operational Strategies
From a fundamental perspective, polyester filament prices still have room to fall during the traditional July-August off-season. Shaoxing Jiabao's reduction may be just the beginning. The market should watch for pricing moves from major players like Tongkun, Hengyi, and Xinfengming. If the leaders follow, the price floor will depend on PTA cost support and inventory clearance speed. Currently, PTA processing margins have been compressed to around 300 yuan/ton, limiting further downside, which will also cap polyester filament's decline to some extent.