The July 7, 2026 textile raw material price list reveals a key signal: cotton-based products are leading the rally, while polyester filament is declining. Cotton yarn 32S rose 0.61% to 24,875 yuan/ton, and cotton yarn 21S edged up 0.28%. PTA gained 0.53% to 5,811.34 yuan/ton. In contrast, polyester FDY and POY fell 0.40% and 0.15%, respectively. The overall sector average daily change was only 0.07%, but the structural divergence is already alarming the industry.
Cotton vs. Chemical Fiber: Two Divergent Logics
The rise in cotton yarn prices is not isolated. Year-on-year, cotton yarn 32S and 21S are up 7.22% and 7.81%, respectively, while raw cotton is up 17.78%. This is underpinned by tight cotton supply fundamentals. Global cotton production expectations for the 2025/26 season have been revised downward, and acreage contraction in China's Xinjiang region has fueled supply concerns. Meanwhile, downstream cotton spinning mills' restocking demand has not fully faded during the off-season, especially for high-count yarn varieties.
The decline of polyester filament tells a different story. Although polyester FDY is still up 16.16% year-on-year, the daily drop of 0.40% signals a weakening trend. Polyester POY, up 12.44% year-on-year, also faces downward pressure. Reasons: on one hand, new PTA and polyester capacity continues to be released, making supply abundant or even oversupplied; on the other hand, downstream weaving mills' operating rates have declined due to high-temperature power restrictions and insufficient orders, limiting purchases to essential needs with little speculative stockpiling.
Interestingly, PTA, the upstream feedstock for polyester, rose 0.53% on the same day. This apparent contradiction reflects profit redistribution along the chain. PTA processing margins, after hitting lows earlier, have recovered slightly, and some PTA plant maintenance schedules have tightened short-term supply. However, the PTA price increase has not been smoothly transmitted to the polyester segment; instead, it has been absorbed by overcapacity at polyester plants, further compressing polyester filament margins.
Stable but Shifting: Sideways Signals from Other Products
Beyond the movers, many products remained flat. Viscose staple fiber was unchanged at 14,200 yuan/ton, up 9.06% year-on-year. Cotton-like yarn also held steady at 17,925 yuan/ton. This suggests a temporary equilibrium in the rayon chain: high dissolving pulp costs support viscose prices, but subdued rayon fabric orders cap upside potential.
Spandex, at 29,666.67 yuan/ton, showed the highest year-on-year increase at 21.09%, but the flat daily change hints that spandex prices may have hit a short-term ceiling. High margins are attracting new capacity, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, posing a risk of price correction.
The nylon series (DTY, FDY, POY) were all flat, with year-on-year gains between 5.5% and 8.78%. Stable caprolactam prices and balanced nylon chip supply and demand suggest nylon prices will likely remain range-bound in the near term.
Acrylonitrile rose 19.67% year-on-year but was flat day-on-day. Its high price is mainly driven by raw material costs (propylene and ammonia) rather than textile end demand.