Acrylonitrile Spot Prices Drop Twice, Supply-Demand Balance Tilts Toward Buyers

The acrylonitrile spot market witnessed an unusual price adjustment signal on July 7: Li Hua Yi Li Jin Refining cut its offer twice in a single day, with a cumulative drop of 200 yuan/ton, bringing the ex-factory price to 9,200 yuan/ton. The company, with a capacity of 260,000 tons/year, is running its plant at full capacity, with no maintenance or production cuts. A single adjustment could be market fluctuation, but a double cut suggests the supplier's assessment of short-term demand has shifted substantially. Industry data shows the 9,200 yuan/ton price has hit a three-month low range, while normal operations mean output continues to flow into the market. The core reason lies in slowed downstream procurement. Major downstream sectors—ABS resin, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide—are all facing weak end-order demand, extending raw material inventory digestion cycles. When buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach, suppliers must offer price concessions to stimulate sales. Another factor is cost transmission: upstream propylene prices have weakened since late June, providing room for acrylonitrile cuts. However, whether the reduction is sufficient depends on the pace of inventory digestion along the chain. Acrylonitrile is the direct feedstock for acrylic fiber, widely used in knitwear, blankets, and outdoor apparel. For acrylic fiber producers, lower raw material costs directly improve profit margins. If acrylonitrile prices stay low, acrylic yarn quotes may follow, enhancing its cost advantage in blended fabrics. For buyers, this is a window to lock in low-cost feedstock, but further declines are possible if demand remains weak during the July-August off-season, potentially pushing prices to 9,000 yuan/ton. Regionally, Shandong is a major production hub; Li Hua Yi's move may trigger similar cuts from peers. Buyers in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, concentrated acrylic consumption areas, will gain stronger bargaining positions. Long-term, acrylonitrile prices depend on two variables: the floor for crude oil and propylene costs, and the recovery pace of textile and apparel export orders—neither showing a clear turning point yet.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Consider phased purchasing around 9,200 yuan/ton to avoid large single orders amid potential further declines. - Monitor inventory levels at Li Hua Yi and other Shandong plants; if days on hand exceed 15, further price weakness is likely. - Negotiate floating pricing clauses with acrylic fiber suppliers to pass through raw material changes.

For Exporters - If orders involve acrylic fabrics, offer updated quotes based on current raw material costs to secure orders. - Watch currency risk: RMB depreciation could offset some benefits from lower feedstock prices. - Use the July-August off-season for raw material stocking ahead of the September-October peak season.